Luck or Skill

Do you know anyone who is GOOD at rock paper scissors, someone who seems to beat the statistical probabilities? I do

And how about Odds? This is the game where you ask someone "what are the odds that you hop that fence?" or "what are the odds you eat that off the ground".

Then they reply "1/5" if they are feeling bold, and "1/20" or "1/100" if they really don't want to eat something off the ground.

Next you count down "3-2-1..._" and then you both say a number within the range that you specified. If you both say 5, the person that you originally asked "what are the odds..." has to do the thing.

A simple and fun game; like a style of gambling, it theoretically relies on luck.

But I have come to believe that while it is most often luck that determines the outcome of the game, one can also incorporate skill. This skill is something like a deaf person reading lips crossed with a perceptive human's ability to read micro expressions.

I believe that someone can be GOOD at the game of odds by waiting for the word/number to form on the lips of the opponent, thus seeming "anticipate" what number they will choose.

I believe something similar can happen in rock paper scissors. Theoretically, both people go "rock_paper_scissors_SHOOT!" and on shoot, simultaneously have their hand become one of the three options. However, this is not a theoretical world and thus it takes time for people's hands to morph into a rock, paper, or "scissors".

My hypothesis is that people that are "good" at RPS are actually waiting almost imperceptibly longer than their opponent to decide on what shape to put out. With this extra fraction of a second, they are able to make a more educated guess on whether their opponent is making rock or paper and thus they have a better chance of pulling out the winning shape.

Cue scientist from off-stage left to come in with a big poster detailing his thesis work in this subject area...